Vária

Fórum sobre Mercados Financeiros
O Alquimista
Mensagens: 1307
Registado: domingo, 24 mai 2015, 21:42

Vária

Mensagem por O Alquimista » terça, 02 jun 2015, 00:46

Sobre a Dow Theory:

My friend Ari Wald, Oppenheimer Asset Management’s ace technician, explains a few things about Dow Theory that neophytes are probably unaware of or do not understand. The first thing is that, despite the weakness in the transports lately, it’s actually still on a buy signal – there is no “neutral” reading for this indicator, it’s always either stop or go. Right now it’s still go (emphasis mine)…


The current signal has been on a buy signal since December 2011 and was last reaffirmed in December 2014. A bearish reversal would require 1) a lower high by at least one of the indexes and 2) then a breakdown by both.

The second thing is that weak transports have historically represented a buy or hold signal for the S&P 500, rather than a sell signal…
Since 1929, the S&P 500 has tended to post stronger performance following a period of underperformance by the DJ Transportation Average (DJTA) vs. a period of DJTA outperformance.

Our takeaway from this study is that DJTA performance is more of a coincident indicator, by outperforming near tops and underperforming near bottoms, rather than a leading one. We therefore view recent DJTA underperformance as the result of ongoing industry rotations rather than a harbinger of weakness for the S&P 500.

http://thereformedbroker.com/2015/06/01 ... ow-theory/

Segue um gráfico diário do IYT bem ilustrativo da situação em que se encontra.
Anexos
iyt.jpg

O Alquimista
Mensagens: 1307
Registado: domingo, 24 mai 2015, 21:42

Re: Vária

Mensagem por O Alquimista » quarta, 03 jun 2015, 23:21

Emerging markets make the buy list this week in advisor-driven portfolios, as do real estate-related funds which for largely for sale last week. Interesting to see some profit taking in the health care index fund that’s been the belle of the ball YTD among US stock sectors.

http://thereformedbroker.com/2015/06/03 ... ets-again/

Fica um gráfico do EEM.



Breve entrevista a um dos guru da economia comportamental:
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2 ... rmedbroker

http://www.chicagobooth.edu/faculty/dir ... d-h-thaler
Anexos
eem.jpg

O Alquimista
Mensagens: 1307
Registado: domingo, 24 mai 2015, 21:42

Re: Vária

Mensagem por O Alquimista » segunda, 08 jun 2015, 02:08

A não perder:
Peter L. Bernstein on risk
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/risk_m ... in_on_risk

O Alquimista
Mensagens: 1307
Registado: domingo, 24 mai 2015, 21:42

Re: Vária

Mensagem por O Alquimista » terça, 09 jun 2015, 00:41

Para quem gosta de se preocupar e estudar as supostas correlações tem aqui um autêntico manancial de informação:
http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

Ocioso
Mensagens: 419
Registado: terça, 26 mai 2015, 21:52

Re: Vária

Mensagem por Ocioso » terça, 09 jun 2015, 01:06

Victor Niederhoffer: The Biggest Stock Market Cons
http://www.dailyspeculations.com/vic/go ... rview.html

Trend Following: How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets, by Michael Covel
Review by Victor Niederhoffer

http://www.dailyspeculations.com/review ... owing.html

O Alquimista
Mensagens: 1307
Registado: domingo, 24 mai 2015, 21:42

Re: Vária

Mensagem por O Alquimista » terça, 09 jun 2015, 22:36

Ocioso Escreveu:Victor Niederhoffer: The Biggest Stock Market Cons
http://www.dailyspeculations.com/vic/go ... rview.html

Trend Following: How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets, by Michael Covel
Review by Victor Niederhoffer

http://www.dailyspeculations.com/review ... owing.html

Muito interessante o conceito de AT do autor. Para já não falar de outros assuntos ali abordados...como trend following, value investing

O Alquimista
Mensagens: 1307
Registado: domingo, 24 mai 2015, 21:42

Re: Vária

Mensagem por O Alquimista » quarta, 10 jun 2015, 00:31

Calling the Turns: Why Market Timing Is So Hard
http://www.researchaffiliates.com/Our%2 ... rmedbroker

Investor Behavior
http://thereformedbroker.com/2015/06/08 ... -behavior/


The Bull Market That Didn’t End in a Crash
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/the-bul ... n-a-crash/


O Alquimista
Mensagens: 1307
Registado: domingo, 24 mai 2015, 21:42

Re: Vária

Mensagem por O Alquimista » terça, 16 jun 2015, 23:56

Very cool tool from EatonVance that allows you to stress test your bond holdings to see how they will handle an increase in rates

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2015/06/bo ... ario-tool/

O Alquimista
Mensagens: 1307
Registado: domingo, 24 mai 2015, 21:42

Re: Vária

Mensagem por O Alquimista » quinta, 18 jun 2015, 01:36


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